Mendim Rugova: Summers will be longer and winters will disappear
Climate change will change our lifestyle.
For years, Mendim Rugova has been the source from which many citizens in Kosovo are informed about how their days will be — rainy, warm, or windy. In addition to simply announcing the weather, Rugova has been making daily measurements and comparisons of weather trends in Kosovo and beyond for several years. He also issued warnings about the heat waves and floods that gripped Kosovo and the region in July 2024.
This year’s heat wave has brought global warming and climate change back into the spotlight. Kosovo is no exception to this trend. Each year, headlines in local and international media highlight the particularly high summer temperatures. For example, 2023, witnessed the hottest summer recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years. As summers continue to heat up, these recent record temperatures will likely be surpassed by even hotter ones in the future.
As climate change manifests differently in different parts of the world, Europe is experiencing heat waves, more days with temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius, more forest fires and droughts.
Climate change can occur naturally, with fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, winds and other climatic factors happening over decades or longer. Over millions of years, the climate has changed, sometimes being colder and other times hotter than today. However, the continuous warming the Earth is currently experiencing is different. This change is not natural; it has been accelerated by human activity, particularly through the release of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.
According to Rugova, climate change is also being felt in Kosovo. However, Kosovo contributes very little greenhouse gas emissions compared to global emitters and therefore has a minimal role in the climate crisis. Rugova suggests that Kosovo’s best course of action is to adapt, either through changes in central-level infrastructure or individual lifestyle changes.
K2.0 spoke with Mendim Rugova, meteorologist and host of the show Mendimi për Motin on T7 TV, to discuss climate change, its impacts on Kosovo and the measures needed to adapt to this new reality.
K2.0: The global climate crisis is one of the greatest emergencies of this century. How have these climate changes affected weather patterns in Kosovo over the last decade?
Mendim Rugova: Climate change is a consequence of global warming and is definitely affecting Kosovo as well. Especially in recent years, we are seeing slightly higher temperatures, both monthly and yearly.
2023 was the second warmest year on record in the country, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. From July 2023 to June 2024, Kosovo experienced the highest temperatures ever recorded, 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than from 1981-2010. Previously, the period from June 2012 to May 2013 held the record for the warmest temperatures.
Can we say that this shows that each year is surpassing the previous one?
The climate doesn’t work exactly like that. Consecutive linear trends do not always continue. Sometimes there is natural variability. In some cases, there may be more cyclones, or colder air may penetrate our region, which can lower the temperatures. It also depends on global patterns, such as El Niño or La Niña, which we hear a lot about in world news.
Last year we had El Niño, which is a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. So far, it has been weakening in the first months of this year and we are gradually transitioning to a state of La Niña, which can lower the temperature a little.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
They are climate phenomena that occur in the Pacific Ocean, which interacts with the atmosphere. In the La Niña phenomenon, when the waters cool a little, fresh currents impact North America, South America and also Indonesia and Australia. Over time, the circulations that occur in the atmosphere can affect the climate in Europe.
How can the climate crisis be simply explained?
Now there is a correlation [between the accumulation of greenhouse gasses and rising temperatures]. Organizations that deal specifically with climate change, including the International Panel on Climate Change — a body of thousands of scientists who work and collect data from all over the world to conduct climate analysis — are all reaching the same conclusion. The climate crisis is caused by the greenhouse gasses that have accumulated, especially in the last century, since the era of industrialization. There is a correlation between rising temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions over the last few decades.
Greenhouse gasses are trapping the heat that is accumulating on Earth. Of course, there are also other factors, such as forests, that absorb carbon dioxide and even the oceans, but they have now started to reach their capacity. As a result, greenhouse gasses are remaining in the atmosphere with nowhere to go and the heat cannot circulate, staying trapped in a closed system.
Kosovo is a small contributor to the climate crisis, but it is affected by it almost equally. Yet each country can contribute through its infrastructure to make climate change more manageable. Are there any strategies being implemented in Kosovo to adapt to the impacts of climate change and what are the main efforts to mitigate these changes?
I served as a deputy minister in the Ministry of Environment for a period [in 2015] and then also as a coordinator for climate change. Recently, I have set it aside a bit and haven’t looked into the current strategies, but there was a strategy for climate change at that time.
The strategy focused on the mitigation of emissions, especially from the main emitter, which is KEC [Kosovo Energy Corporation], as we have no other major industry. Although we also had metallurgy in the ‘90s, it no longer exists.
There were plans to develop a strategy and there were also action plans for adaptation. I think we should focus more on the adaptation part because, even if we stop our greenhouse gas emissions now, we would still have to prepare. We are a tiny speck on this big globe, which has much bigger emitters of greenhouse gasses. Yes, we should focus more on adaptation and preparation.
With climate change we are experiencing heavy rains, so we need to think about the infrastructure in our cities. We should plan for atmospheric water collectors so that the rainwater does not go to waste and can be used for irrigation in urban areas and for the land, creating a sustainable usage cycle.
Then there are other adaptive measures for rivers, increasing their capacity and regularly cleaning riverbeds to ensure they can handle floods effectively.
Since I was more involved in meteorology, there was also an effort to enhance the observational capacity of the Hydro-Meteorological Institute (HMI), aiming for as many real-time measurements as possible. We face challenges with storms that develop rapidly. Despite having computer models for forecasting, we always need nowcasting, which provides last-minute forecasts. When a storm begins to develop regionally or nationally, meteorological radar should provide a three-dimensional view of its movement and intensity, predicting hail or rainfall amounts. This allows municipalities and affected areas to be alerted at least half an hour in advance.
You have been a part of institutional climate change initiatives for a while, focusing on reducing emissions and adaptation. How seriously has climate change been taken by the government, municipalities and other relevant institutions?
I was particularly involved when the inter-ministerial group for climate change was formed. At that time, there was not much interest. Even when we tried to hold a meeting, it was rare for a minister or even a deputy minister to attend, making it difficult to approve the initial strategy and start the initiatives. However, recently it seems that they have been taking mitigating measures more seriously. We are seeing more focus on energy, especially renewable energy, and now we have investments.
Before, they would only show interest when there was an immediate weather-related event, such as extreme heat, heat waves, or floods. Then, they showed more interest.
I think we should focus more on the adaptation part because, even if we stop our greenhouse gas emissions now, we would still have to prepare. We are a tiny speck on this big globe, which has much bigger emitters of greenhouse gasses. Yes, we should focus more on adaptation and preparation.
Kosovo is a small contributor to the climate crisis, but it is affected by it almost equally. Yet each country can contribute through its infrastructure to make climate change more manageable. Are there any strategies being implemented in Kosovo to adapt to the impacts of climate change and what are the main efforts to mitigate these changes?
I served as a deputy minister in the Ministry of Environment for a period [in 2015] and then also as a coordinator for climate change. Recently, I have set it aside a bit and haven’t looked into the current strategies, but there was a strategy for climate change at that time.
The strategy focused on the mitigation of emissions, especially from the main emitter, which is KEC [Kosovo Energy Corporation], as we have no other major industry. Although we also had metallurgy in the ‘90s, it no longer exists.
There were plans to develop a strategy and there were also action plans for adaptation. I think we should focus more on the adaptation part because, even if we stop our greenhouse gas emissions now, we would still have to prepare. We are a tiny speck on this big globe, which has much bigger emitters of greenhouse gasses. Yes, we should focus more on adaptation and preparation.
With climate change we are experiencing heavy rains, so we need to think about the infrastructure in our cities. We should plan for atmospheric water collectors so that the rainwater does not go to waste and can be used for irrigation in urban areas and for the land, creating a sustainable usage cycle.
Then there are other adaptive measures for rivers, increasing their capacity and regularly cleaning riverbeds to ensure they can handle floods effectively.
Since I was more involved in meteorology, there was also an effort to enhance the observational capacity of the Hydro-Meteorological Institute (HMI), aiming for as many real-time measurements as possible. We face challenges with storms that develop rapidly. Despite having computer models for forecasting, we always need nowcasting, which provides last-minute forecasts. When a storm begins to develop regionally or nationally, meteorological radar should provide a three-dimensional view of its movement and intensity, predicting hail or rainfall amounts. This allows municipalities and affected areas to be alerted at least half an hour in advance.
You have been a part of institutional climate change initiatives for a while, focusing on reducing emissions and adaptation. How seriously has climate change been taken by the government, municipalities and other relevant institutions?
I was particularly involved when the inter-ministerial group for climate change was formed. At that time, there was not much interest. Even when we tried to hold a meeting, it was rare for a minister or even a deputy minister to attend, making it difficult to approve the initial strategy and start the initiatives. However, recently it seems that they have been taking mitigating measures more seriously. We are seeing more focus on energy, especially renewable energy, and now we have investments.
Before, they would only show interest when there was an immediate weather-related event, such as extreme heat, heat waves, or floods. Then, they showed more interest.
For more on the climate crisis, watch K2.0's “Earth at Risk” explainer video series.
Earth at risk
Can we consider these the coolest summers we’ll have?
Globally, scientists in meteorological organizations, as well as U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, are saying that these have probably been the coolest years we’ll ever have.
Even for Kosovo, I think that these have been the coolest summers compared to the ones we’ve had in the past. We may have more tropical days above 30 degrees Celsius, but also much hotter days, reaching 35 degrees Celsius. Based on climate projections, these temperatures are expected to become even more intense in the future. These changes have also affected our bodies as it is harder to achieve the comfort we had in the 80s or 90s when the first signals of global warming began to appear. So, for Kosovo, I’m saying that these might be the coolest years we’ve had, even though they are not very cool.
Global efforts to keep temperature rises below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels do not seem to be on track.
In the last 12 months, temperatures have averaged over 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial levels between 1850 and 1900. The average for the entire 12 months is 1.64 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, which means it has exceeded the 1.5 degrees set by the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement has this as the target over a longer-term period, such as 20 or 30 years, not just one year.
Some regions may experience more drought, reducing agricultural yields, while others may face heavy rains and floods, impacting crop development. This could lead to increased hunger and drought, which have already become more frequent and severe in other parts of the world.
What will a world where temperatures rise by more than 1.5 or 2 degrees look like? How will our way of life change?
I see the world becoming more chaotic, beyond the kind of chaos we’ve been experiencing in recent years. In the future, some coastal areas may see rising water levels, forcing populations to move to higher ground, increasing population density. Economically, agriculture will be significantly affected by climate change. Some regions may experience more drought, reducing agricultural yields, while others may face heavy rains and floods, impacting crop development. This could lead to increased hunger and drought, which have already become more frequent and severe in other parts of the world.
You mentioned the floods. In our research at K2.0, we have seen that some cities that were previously unaffected by floods are now being hit by them.
In January 2021, there was an exceptionally high amount of rainfall with nearly 200 mm recorded nationally — three to four times the January average. This level of rainfall is the highest I have seen in any statistics for Kosovo.
Since 2014, we have experienced the highest rainfall extremes. For example, while Prishtina typically has 600 mm of annual rainfall, in recent years it has had 800 mm of rainfall in just three or four separate events.
This is an effect of climate change because a warmer atmosphere can hold more humidity. When the atmosphere holds more humidity, it leads to increased precipitation. Additionally, with fewer snowy winters, there is more rain. The rainfall is more rapid and frequent than snowfall.
However, in urban areas, there is a distinct difference due to the density of concrete and asphalt, which trap heat and keep temperatures higher. This effect is not unique to our country but is seen globally, known as the urban heat island effect.
Have you noticed a difference in the increase in temperatures between urban and rural areas, or do they rise at the same pace?
We have a little problem analyzing this because there are no records, no measurements. But based on what I have observed in the region and forecasts, urban areas consistently experience higher temperatures. We also now have tropical nights, where temperatures do not drop below 20 degrees Celsius. This is becoming noticeable even in Prishtina.
In the winter, another phenomenon we observe is thermal inversions, where temperatures are higher in the mountains than in the plains. However, in urban areas, there is a distinct difference due to the density of concrete and asphalt, which trap heat and keep temperatures higher. This effect is not unique to our country but is seen globally, known as the urban heat island effect.
There is also discussion about changes in the length of seasons. Have you noticed this and how are they manifesting?
Of course, they are being noticed. In recent years, especially the last decade, we can observe much milder and shorter winters.
But at the same time, especially in these last two years, there have been periods of snow in April, which surprised us. Concurrently, spring has been arriving earlier, notably in 2016 and this year. Near the end of February this year, you could see several trees already blooming. While in the past, this cycle might have occurred three or four days or even a week later. This shift happened in the relatively short span of eight years.
Perhaps we are witnessing a cycle where tree blossoming occurs even earlier, eventually becoming the new norm with consistently earlier springs followed by earlier and longer summers. This could lead to winters starting to disappear.
What are the long-term temperature trends in Kosovo and how do they compare with global trends?
Europe is experiencing the fastest rate of warming. Unlike in America where winter storms are more common, such events are less common in Europe, where temperatures are significantly higher. I primarily focus on these anomalies in my show, which are more noticeable here than on other continents. Cyclones from the Atlantic often bring warm air currents from Africa over our region, affecting parts of the Apennines and southeastern Europe, as seen in the recent heat waves. Currently, temperatures in our country are even higher than in Iberia — Spain and Portugal.
Regarding the climate projections I’ve reviewed during my time as a coordinator, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, temperatures could rise by as much as four degrees Celsius by the end of the century in our country.
What period are you referring to?
The most extreme period predicted is 2070-2100. Before 2050, there will be a slower but exponential increase.
Regarding precipitation, projections suggest it will become less frequent, leading to increased dryness. Interestingly, while more precipitation is expected during winter and autumn months, and to some extent in spring, summers are anticipated to be significantly drier, with expected reductions in rainfall by 30-40%.
Annual temperatures are projected to rise significantly, particularly toward the end of the century.
Changes should be made in diet and food consumption — reducing the consumption of red meat — and in water usage, being careful to avoid waste. However, I predict a challenge in achieving these adaptations in human behavior.
Given these predictions, what changes are needed in infrastructure and human behavior to adapt to or prevent such a future?
That is the slightly more difficult part. We’ve had some great developments in our lifestyles in recent years, and now it’s a bit more of a problem to give up on some things. Changes should be made in diet and food consumption — reducing the consumption of red meat — and in water usage, being careful to avoid waste. However, I predict a challenge in achieving these adaptations in human behavior.
I’m hopeful that given the scientific advancements we’ve made in recent years, we may find a solution in this aspect. Whether it’s finding ways to manage the accumulation of greenhouse gasses or removing them from the atmosphere to achieve balance. However, we also need to regulate our lifestyles in order to go back to the principles of sustainable development.
How do you see Kosovo’s potential for sustainable development and the use of renewable energy sources, from a meteorological perspective?
I’ve analyzed recent data and satellite assessments reveal an increase in hours of sunshine in our country. This trend offers potential for the greater utilization of solar energy, as hours of sunshine have increased by 20-30% since the 1970s and 1980s. Particularly in 2022, there were many sunny hours, although the record for sunshine remains in 2007. In the past six months alone, we’ve had 280 hours of sunshine.
Given Kosovo’s predominantly flat terrain, there is also potential for wind energy in mountainous regions. Overall, Kosovo shows promise in terms of renewable energy.
Feature Image: Majlinda Hoxha / K2.0
This article has been edited for length and clarity. The conversation was conducted in Albanian.
The content of this article is the sole responsibility of K2.0.
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